Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.024442 0.027768 0.031409 0.035695 0.040607 0.046069 0.052610
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.018814 0.023219 0.028478 0.035239 0.043733 0.054086 0.067721
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.015801 0.020600 0.026671 0.034955 0.046025 0.060396 0.080606
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.014126 0.019263 0.026079 0.035848 0.049596 0.068411 0.096377
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.012445 0.017628 0.024787 0.035488 0.051228 0.073771 0.108929
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.011561 0.016952 0.024677 0.036675 0.055059 0.082519 0.127306
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.010191 0.015396 0.023096 0.035460 0.055090 0.085514 0.137129
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.009198 0.014286 0.022036 0.034876 0.055951 0.089763 0.149301
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.008182 0.013029 0.020612 0.033534 0.055398 0.091605 0.157574
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.007843 0.012808 0.020793 0.034795 0.059234 0.101045 0.179962
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.007528 0.012592 0.020946 0.036005 0.063077 0.110857 0.204149
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.007229 0.012369 0.021058 0.037134 0.066865 0.120930 0.229996
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006678 0.011674 0.020317 0.036710 0.067857 0.126134 0.247443
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.006190 0.011049 0.019646 0.036350 0.068934 0.131634 0.266235
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005763 0.010494 0.019045 0.036048 0.070069 0.137324 0.286083
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005543 0.010298 0.019084 0.036972 0.073704 0.148361 0.318653
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.005177 0.009795 0.018498 0.036599 0.074656 0.153983 0.340087
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.005033 0.009707 0.018698 0.037827 0.079055 0.167321 0.380682
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.004623 0.009059 0.017742 0.036570 0.078010 0.168756 0.393742
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.004319 0.008599 0.017126 0.035967 0.078319 0.173197 0.414536
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003963 0.008005 0.016186 0.034581 0.076734 0.173158 0.424279
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003892 0.007997 0.016460 0.035884 0.081417 0.188178 0.474109
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.003817 0.007975 0.016702 0.037134 0.086108 0.203746 0.527590